Mystic Greg
Predictions for the future of recruitment
For those of you unfamiliar with her, Mystic Meg was an astrologer brought to fame for her highly specific predictions tethered to the freshly launched National Lottery in 1994.
Her super specific predictions were wildly inaccurate except for that time she guesstimated the winner would be called Pat or Cathy, someone would wear a dark blue suit and have a cat with golden eyes.
Much like any seer, or monkeys with typewriters, every once in a while, their output will be bang on.
Nostradamus famously predicted the Great Fire of London and the French Revolution.
Cardano infamously predicted the date of his own death many years in advance. Although this prediction is somewhat muddy because he took his life at the age of 75.
Today, I cast my eyes on the crystal ball of recruitment futures.
And if I’m wrong, I’ll retcon this post and no one will ever know.
The past 20 years have seen further automation and transactionalisation of the recruitment industry, in part brought about through developments in technology – it’s clear that will only continue apace.
What does that look like in practice?
Firstly, I think we need to get away from the marketing terminology that is ‘AI’ and look at the wolves that have been dressed in sheep’s clothing: machine learning, heuristic algorithms, large language models etc.
Each in their own right has an impact on the future of recruitment, and brought together might spell the end of transactional recruiters.
Doom!
You may be aware that Microsoft functionally owns the technology behind Chat-GPT, given they invested $10bn in OpenAI.
Of course, they also own LinkedIn, and many many other things, some of which are obvious, some not so much.
Prediction 1.
The first prediction is around how a large language model, which parses information at scale and reforms based on its estimation of our intent, can integrate with LinkedIn.
We know already that ChatGPT can digest, analyse, rewrite and write from scratch documentation.
We know that the more information it has access to, and the better the prompt, the more effective the output.
What is LinkedIn if not a huge database of candidate and vacancy content?
We know that ChatGPT is integrated into apps like DuoLingo, for natural seeming ChatBot conversations that help with language learning.
It’s not a huge leap to imagine LinkedIn automating how vacancies are advertised above and below the line, automatically searching for and engaging candidates, and representing their CVs for those same vacancies.
Recruitment: automated.
If you’re a recruiter that takes the human out of the equation, what place will you have in this scenario?
Prediction 2.
The next versions of ChatGPT are likely to include audio and video input, to text output.
There are already platforms available that convert text input to video output, using AI-generated human-seeming avatars.
Clunky bot interviews are already in use.
It’s not a huge leap seeing these techs combining to allow for more lifelike screening, while also fielding questions from candidates.
A 2-way bot interview is in the cards, and it could well be better than a first-stage telephone qualification, for both employer and candidate.
Better for DEI?
Prediction 3.
CrystalKnows is a platform that does personality profiling from LinkedIn content. The output is broadly like a DISC profile, advising on communication preferences for people selling to the author.
My results were scarily accurate. In short, don’t sell to me with crummy personalisation; don’t try to be my friend in order to build a relationship; don’t try and BS me or use pattern interrupts.
Instead take a direct, logic and evidence-based approach.
Get it wrong and expect short shrift (I’m working on being nicer).
As we know, ChatGPT parses text, so I asked it to give me an MBTI and DISC guess based on my profile.
It was hesitant – I had to ask three times in different ways.
My MBTI came up as INFJ (tests indicate I’m ENTJ or INTJ). DISC was SC.
Just based on a profile I’ve edited many, many times. Widen that out to all my content, including off-the-cuff posts and comments, and I’d expect the parsing to be far more accurate.
Prediction 3 is on the fly psychometric assessments of candidates based on public domain content.
What need will we have for recruiters?
The good news is that the limitation of parsing content is that it’s reliant on content that’s out there already.
It’s unable to establish the situation-specific insight necessary for transformational change - if you’re a recruiter that builds your process on culture and context, you’ll be less affected than CV shovellers.
‘AI’ doesn’t know what it doesn’t know.
And because it’s reliant on content, it will be flawed in engaging people who don’t use LinkedIn well.
What about people who use ChatGPT to generate their content, apply for jobs and do their interviews?
That’s already happening and is a threat to fair process.
Technology is developed to be faster, broader and more in-depth, but it isn’t great at thinking outside of the box. Yet.
So it will only ever do iterative improvements.
While if everyone has access to the same toolbox, and human behaviour still undermines effectiveness in bringing the right people forwards, all that happens is that everyone takes the same step forwards.
And no one is ahead of the pack.
While these developments will affect the industry to an extent, adaptable recruiters will always have a place.
Unless there’s a disruption, such as cinema, the nuclear bomb, graphene and quantum computing.
Prediction 4
Quantum computing is where the game will be genuinely changed, given the research showing that consciousness may be related to quantum entanglement. I predict this is where real AI will come from.
As for when the first three predictions will happen?
I think we are quite a few years away from seeing AI take away all our jobs. 2030?
In the meanwhile, best to understand as much as possible what’s coming up, and use tech to enable better work.
Even if that understanding is just a finger to the wind, like this post.
Thanks for reading.
Regards,
Greg
p.s. While you are here, if you like the idea of improving how you recruit, lack capacity or need better candidates, and are curious how I can help, these are my services:
- commercial, operational and technical leadership recruitment (available for no more than four vacancies)
- manage part or all of your recruitment on an individually designed basis for one client (no availability until June)
- recruitment coaching and mentoring (no capacity until May)
- recruitment strategy setting
- outplacement support
Just hit reply to check if my approach is right for you.