The Great People Shortage

Threat and opportunity

As regular as clockwork we go from one Great to another.

From resignations to quiet quitting – the irony has always been that these are nothing new.

The Great People Shortage may be another pithy mouth spitter, but this time there is an existential conversation to be had.

While most population conversations are around exponential growth, we are reaching a point which means quite the opposite.

The summary thinking is that due to better living standards and lower childbirth rates, the global population will begin to shrink in the next 40 years.

At the same time average ages will continue to go up.

In better-off countries this will happen sooner.

It’s already happening in South Korea.

There are many long-term consequences of this, such as in South Korea pressure on the economy, and consequently on their pension system.

At the other end of the range, there are fewer conscription-age people for the military.

Why write about this in recruitment, especially as it seems to be 40 years away?

Because what happens now directly leads to any future state, and we already have a number of real-life recruitment situations that relate.

Look at Germany which requires 400,000 new migrant workers every year to mitigate the impact of an ageing society.

There are currently 2 million unfilled vacancies in Germany.

You need only look at Brexit to see that we have made it harder for migrant workers to gain employment in the UK.

How many unfilled vacancies do we currently have?

Is that going to get any better across society?

Now, look at the NHS which has an average working age of 43, with 47% of workers above 45 years of age.

But it’s with the NHS that we can start to see the short- to medium-term opportunity.

During the early part of the pandemic, they incentivised retired doctors to come back into the workforce.

Similarly, in a report from 2019, the BMA states that prevention of early retirement through improved health & wellbeing programmes is part of their employment strategy.

Which is to say they are focusing on retaining their most experienced staff, and as we know better retention means easier recruitment – given everyone benefits from better health & wellbeing.

Right now, you may feel there’s little need to worry about an ageing workforce, especially if you have a number of tricky vacancies to fill.

But don’t forget that what may be a trickle now can lead to a cascade failure.

While if you set a strategy now to mitigate that trickle, you can benefit in making your current tricky vacancies easier to fill.

Here are some thoughts on how:

• Don’t discriminate or marginalise on age.

• Don’t discriminate or marginalise on sex, race, religion, neurodiversity, disability or any other demographics where ‘culture fit’ is an excuse

• Do look at marginalised demographics as an opportunity

• How can you improve your recruitment to attract non-pigeonholed candidates who can fulfil your roles perfectly well, while complementing an inclusive culture?

• How can you retain these same, through a working environment that enables and accommodates them?

It takes an existential crisis for the NHS to look at their older employees as a solution.

While you may not be there yet, there’s every reason to learn the lesson of others now and see its benefit.

Because while Diversity, Equity and Inclusion may seem a burden in many quarters – it’s also a commercial opportunity you can take advantage of.

Do the right thing and see the benefit.

Indeed, I’d be willing to bet that, if you are struggling to recruit, you probably already have suitable candidates in view, if you look at them in a different way – without bias and assumption.

Thanks for reading.

Regards,

Greg

p.s. While you are here, if you like the idea of improving how you recruit, lack capacity or need better candidates, and are curious how I can help, these are my services:

- commercial, operational and technical leadership recruitment (available for no more than two vacancies)

- manage part or all of your recruitment on an individually designed basis for one client

- recruitment coaching and mentoring (one place available at £200/hr + VAT)

- recruitment strategy setting

- outplacement support

Just hit reply to check if my approach is right for you.